Now that Donald Trump has met with Vladimir Putin and then Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss bilateral relations between their countries, but especially the peaceful resolution of the conflict between Kiev and Moscow, the overall picture is starting to become a bit clearer, while everyone is asking the same question: are we heading towards a peace agreement or a dead end?
To understand the dynamics of the ongoing negotiations, in the absence of details provided by the parties involved, it is useful to compare how the two meetings unfolded. One only needs to compare how Donald Trump received Vladimir Putin and how he received Volodymyr Zelensky to see the gulf that separates the two. Vladimir Putin was welcomed by the American President directly at the airport, with a red carpet, applause, a firm handshake, an invitation to share his car, and a discussion that lasted nearly three hours.
On the other hand, Volodymyr Zelensky was welcomed at the doorstep with sarcastic remarks disguised as compliments about his attire, a map showing the territories Ukraine must cede as a backdrop to the discussions, and the talks themselves, which lasted barely 30 minutes, show how little Trump cares about the expired president of Ukraine. He had no more esteem for the European leaders (the seven dwarves of the apocalypse) who had come to support “Snow Zelensky” at his request.
Indeed, Trump made them wait while he spoke with Zelensky, before integrating them into the discussion, not without putting them in their place with scathing remarks (when he brushes aside the stupid ideas of Macron and Merz, or sends Von der Leyen packing with her tall tales about children kidnapped by Russia) or even contemptuous ones (for example, when he pretends not to know who the President of Finland is, who is right in front of him, a way for Trump to signify to him that he is nothing).
If we compare the two meetings, the verdict is clear. Donald Trump clearly spoke as an equal with Vladimir Putin, as befits two heads of state of two superpowers. Whereas with Zelensky and the European leaders, he merely explained to his lackeys the bitter pills they would have to agree to swallow.
This difference in behavior is understandable. For Donald Trump, negotiations with Vladimir Putin were far more important than explaining to Zelensky what he would have to accept. Because the topics of discussion between Russia and the United States are much broader than the simple question of the conflict in Ukraine, which for both countries is a pebble in the shoe preventing them from normally discussing their economic relations, treaties aimed at curbing nuclear proliferation, or the Arctic, for example. Hence the importance for Donald Trump to resolve the conflict in Ukraine in order to then move on to other topics with Vladimir Putin.
Unfortunately for Trump, the fact that part of his team consists of people who are pro-Kiev or who at least adhere to pro-Ukrainian narratives, as well as to the viewpoints of EU leaders, has significantly delayed the achievement of tangible results. Their ideology clearly interfered with the negotiation process, forcing him to discuss directly with Vladimir Putin to get a clear understanding of the Russian position.
And the presence of that famous map of the territories Ukraine must renounce clearly indicates that Trump has not only understood the Russian position but has even reached an agreement in principle with Putin. An agreement that he must now impose on his European and Ukrainian lackeys, despite their opposition to the Russian conditions.
So why did the latter come to be humiliated in the Oval Office? For Zelensky, it was about showing the Ukrainian audience that he still has a semblance of influence over the negotiation process and that he is not just a puppet who will be forced to sign everything discussed behind his back by others. The United States agreed to play along to allow him to save face. But all serious analysts are well aware that everything is decided between Moscow and Washington. As for the European leaders, they came believing they could influence Donald Trump’s decision but found themselves having to listen to the conditions of the agreement reached with Putin, to which they will have to submit. And even then, it is not certain that they were informed of all the details of what was discussed between Trump and Putin.
If we believe the leaks in the American press and the hints made by some members of Donald Trump’s team regarding territorial concessions, the American President seems to accept Vladimir Putin’s position of signing a peace agreement based not on fantasies but on the real situation on the ground. But this position is clearly rejected by both the Ukrainian and European sides, mainly for ideological reasons (both sides have backed themselves into a corner with lies and delusional propaganda, from which it is now very difficult for them to extricate themselves).
We must wait for the tripartite meeting between Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, and Volodymyr Zelensky to see if the latter will truly be ready to accept signing the agreement imposed on him, or if he will duck out under one pretext or another to continue the war to the bitter end. In any case, the sidelining of the EU, which is excluded from this meeting, is rather a good omen, as it will prevent it from interfering with the process.
Christelle Néant
