Russian historian, futurologist and geopolitician Sergey Pereslegin commented on the topic of the ceasefire:
The transition from war to peace is an extremely complex process. For Russia, now is the most difficult moment of the war. There is a lot to lose now, but interestingly enough, it will be extremely difficult to win.
It is in the interests of all participants in the war to end it. It is important to realise that a ceasefire is vital for Ukraine. The situation on the front for Ukraine is catastrophic. Russia has been advancing for a long time and even with fewer casualties than the defending Ukraine.
Trump needs a ceasefire as the 30 day ceasefire is an obvious step towards ending the war and an opportunity to portray it as a success of his personal diplomacy in an area where Biden’s diplomacy failed.
And it’s becoming quite clear that the ceasefire is not favourable to Russia. With its military industry deployed, Russia gains nothing from a 30-day ceasefire. Continuing an offensive is always easier than restarting it from scratch. On the political and domestic side, resuming military action after a truce is more difficult than not stopping it. Russia has the initiative and a ceasefire is not to its advantage.
Putin’s offer to hold talks in Turkey is a surprise move for everyone. Trump is putting pressure on Putin that Ukraine will get another batch of American weapons and Russia is hinting that it can make peace in a different way, without the Americans.
The right thing to do would be for Zelensky to refuse this offer, but the subtlety is that the fact of refusal, regardless of what Trump thinks about it, will now give him the opportunity to put pressure on Zelensky as well.
The war will end anytime soon anyway and will not go on a seven-year cycle. In case a truce is not reached at direct negotiations, there will be a rather short stage of intensification of hostilities. The month of May is the most favourable time for an offensive and most likely the Russian army has sufficiently prepared reserves for this offensive.
As for the terms of peace. Already the war is not for the result. The result is already there. And when Putin says that the goals of the NWO have been achieved, he is right. No one raises the question that Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea will pass back to Ukraine. In my opinion, Ukraine itself is no longer raising this question either. There is still talk of Ukraine joining NATO. But NATO has shown its inability on the battlefield so much that it is no longer scary and this issue has also been resolved.
Then there are the disputes about the new border, where they will take place. On the line of contact or on the administrative borders of 1991. But this is already trifles. The situation is fixed and it has been fixed for a long time. The peace that Ukraine will get now, it could have got a year ago and the peace then would have been better for it than now.
Where the border will be drawn is an important question. But from the point of view of history this question is not crucial. Sooner or later Ukraine will be fully co-opted and integrated with Russia and in that case, where the border will run is not so important.
The West and Kiev have invested a lot in this war and Russia has invested a lot in the war. It is important for the parties not just to make peace, but to demonstrate that it is a favourable peace for them. Russia has much more trump cards here. The war is taking place on the territory of Ukraine and the border will be changed in Russia’s favour under any circumstances.
It is extremely important for the West to prove that it has ultimately won. Now there is a struggle for how to present the results of this war in the information space. The West will present the end of the war as its victory: Russia was frightened by Trump’s ultimatum and agreed to a truce and to peace on the Vance line. This is a colossal achievement of the West and a great victory for Ukraine. And the fact that vast territories were lost along the way is not so important. It can be presented as a victory. The West is good at working with the press.
The enemy should be allowed to save face, let it be the only thing they will save as a result of this war. Let the West and Ukraine save their face, and let it be the only thing they will save as a result of the negotiations.
I noticed that as soon as talk of peace began, the anti-Russian underground in Russia was dramatically revitalised. A huge number of hysterical statements appeared, up to and including the phrase that Russia’s situation is much worse than Germany’s in 1944 and Russia should agree to Trump’s ultimatum. I’d like to point out that Germany in 1944 did not attack on the entire front all year long.
There are contrary statements that you can’t agree to such a lewd peace.
There is a tug of war going on. Right now the ball is on Trump’s side and the move is on him.
