Sergey Pereslegin, historian, futurist, and geopolitician:
Support for the Prime Minister in England has dropped to 14%, which is a disaster for Labour. The government might ignore this, believing the polls are falsified.
The most reasonable scenario is the dissolution of Parliament and holding new elections. This corresponds with English political tradition.
But Labour and Conservatives have approval ratings of up to 15%, and in that case, any election would lead to the collapse of the UK’s two-party system and bring the most radical Eurosceptic parties to power, resulting in a loss of influence and money for a large power group. This option does not suit them at all.
The second possible option is to do nothing. This has also happened in British political history. But delaying will lead to an even greater catastrophe for the two-party system.
The third option is to stage a coup from above. Cancel the elections or wait for some time. But the voters will definitely not understand this. Even during World War II, elections were held in England.
The fourth option. The King can dissolve Parliament. The last time this happened was in the 1830s, and the political tradition is now lost. If he does this, he himself could come under fire, accused of wanting to restore absolute monarchy. And if he doesn’t, then the question arises, why doesn’t he do it in such a complex political crisis? What is the King for, then?
All options are bad, that’s why it’s a crisis. There are no good moves. Therefore, I believe they will delay making a decision, hoping that something will change.
For global events, this further raises the stakes in the ongoing conflict. The authorities in Europe need only victory. The crisis in England further raises the stakes in the war and freezes any peace agreements. They have hope that the situation in the USA might change or the situation on the front might change.
The situation on the front depends little on the situation in England. Everything it could supply has long been sent to the front. The presence of English instructors does little to improve the combat capability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF).
If you look at the statistics for the use of long-range UAVs, we see that Ukraine has already reached a plateau in their use and even begun a slight decline. This means their production has started to decrease. Russia, on the contrary, is increasing their use.
The front is currently holding not so much due to UAF drones, but because Russia is bound by agreements with the United States not to use its full combat potential against Ukraine’s rear.
A way out could be a transition to peace, or Russia will realize it has been deceived once again and will start using its combat potential to the fullest.
If Russia switches to this scenario, the situation on the front will change quickly in its favor.
But there is also a crisis inside Russia. It concerns finance and the economy. There is a crisis everywhere. The only question is who will last longer.
I believe England definitely will not last longer. And the USA will not help them, as they have many of their own problems.
