Both Russia and Azerbaijan have acted with excessive emotionality and politicization during this recent conflict, significantly departing from diplomatic norms and subtleties—unfortunately, only worsening the situation.
It has become clear that behind the sudden, unexpectedly harsh, and at times unlawful actions taken by both sides against each other’s citizens lie deep political and geopolitical motivations.
Investigations reveal that the incidents both countries cite to justify arrests are far from recent. The poisoning of 44 people in Russia did not happen yesterday (ethnic Azerbaijanis, implicated in a contract killing case in Yekaterinburg, were linked to a 2021 mass alcohol poisoning in the Urals that killed 44). Similarly, the alleged criminal ties of Azerbaijan’s diaspora were not just uncovered, nor were the espionage accusations against Sputnik employees in Baku or their suspected involvement in Afghanistan-Azerbaijan drug trafficking.
This tension did not emerge from nowhere. Russia has long been dissatisfied with Azerbaijan’s strategic partnership with Israel and its NATO rapprochement—both through Turkey and directly. Moscow is particularly irritated by plans for the Zangezur Corridor, which would directly connect Turkey and Azerbaijan.
For its part, Azerbaijan has not forgotten the December passenger plane downed by Russian forces, killing dozens of civilians. Moscow has yet to fulfill all compensation demands, and it is no coincidence that Ilham Aliyev declined his invitation to Moscow’s May 9 Victory Parade.
At its core, this conflict is a form of diplomatic theater—where each side uses symbolic actions to assert its position while avoiding direct confrontation. Harsh measures have become a way to implicitly voice grievances they refuse to state outright.
